Natural Gas: Risk premium sustained on Gulf disruptions – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Florence Schmit highlights that TTF Natural Gas remains supported by low European storage and disrupted Gulf LNG flows. The absence of meaningful U.S.-Iran progress keeps a structural risk premium in prices, with 2026 TTF seen averaging ˆ60/MWh in Q4. For 2027, the base case is ˆ42/MWh, but infrastructure damage could push TTF into a ˆ50–60/MWh range.
Hormuz risks keep TTF supported
"For gas markets, the key issue is therefore not whether an occasional vessel can pass through Hormuz, but whether negotiations can produce a stable framework that restores Qatari LNG exports on a sustained basis."
"As long as there are no meaningful U.S.-Iran negotiations, there will be no meaningful surge in LNG flows out of the Gulf."
"The stop-start pattern of cargoes will continue to leave Europe competing for marginal Atlantic supply at a time when storage remains low and winter demand is approaching."
"That keeps European natural gas prices elevated: temporary progress on any type of corridor through Hormuz can trigger short-lived sell-offs, but only a credible political agreement that restores shipping confidence can remove the structural risk premium from TTF."
"Our ˆ42/MWh forecast for 2027 therefore remains the base case, while an infrastructure-damage scenario that delays the recovery in flows would make TTF more likely to trade in the ˆ50–60/MWh range through much of next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)